MPSA IX

In this module participants will be able to understand conceptual and theoretical approaches to security and peace studies; examine the various patterns of violent conflicts in Africa; develop a critical understanding of how and why violent conflicts break out in Africa; evaluate and apply various theories of peace and security studies; understand the transformational impact — for better or worse — of violent conflict on women, children and society in Africa; map out the occurrence of conflict and their actors; Identify conflict management and resolution institutions at national, regional and continental levels; Understand and demonstrate how those institutions function; Formulate broad, exploratory and inquisitive perspectives that challenge mainstream and easy assumptions, interpretations and representations and Begin understanding the complex dimensions (historical, political, economic, and social) of the crisis in the DRC.

Module 3 is designed with a two-fold complementary rationale: first, the module exposes participants to conflict prevention and early warning systems in the practice of African intergovernmental organizations. Second, the module deepens participants' awareness of the importance of conflict analysis and assessment in the development of scenarios and policy and response options by allowing participants to directly - and working as a team - experience the application of the full spectrum of steps and procedures of conflict analysis/assessment methodologies to a completely new case-study, that of South Sudan.

In week 1, the Module introduces the topics of conflict prevention and early warning systems in the context of on-going, 24/7 operations by Africa's regional and sub-regional organizations. How does one design a system capable of on-going monitoring and analysis that delivers some level of anticipation/predictive capability of violent conflict? What types of indicators should be used? What types of data are needed? What is the expertise needed for staff engaged in conflict analysis and early warning systems? What are the characteristics of existing early warning systems in Africa? Particular attention will be given to existing and functioning Early Warning Systems such as the AU's Continental Early Warning System (CEWS), ECOWAS' ECOWARN, and IGAD's CEWARN (among others) and where possible, staff of these organizations will participate in the course. Participants will visit the AU headquarters and interact with CEWS staff. Week 1 will also include an 'in-house' individual graded assignment to be undertaken by all participants in day 5 (see note 1 below).

In week 2 of this module, and under the guidance and support of an expert resource person, participants will work as a team to apply, test and reflect upon the practice of conflict analysis/assessments and early warning. Participants will now focus on a surprise case, that of the conflict in South Sudan and produce a written conflict assessment/early warning report as well as verbal briefing on the situation in the country. Week 2 is designed to replicate the real world functioning of an early warning system and is entirely activity oriented. It will see the group of participants design and function as an Early Warning System for the duration of the week on the basis of a realistic scenario: a request by the African Union's Peace and Security Department to MPSA for the development of an early warning report on South Sudan with specific scenarios and policy/response options. In this exercise, the module will make use of the CEWS Handbook.